Cherry Picking The Diamonds From The Stock Market

Do stock indices provide a fair indication of the performance of an economy?


No. When we talk about the economy, we usually mean GDP — and we look at recent production of goods. The stock market is more a measure of future expectations of how companies will do.

A good predictor of how the economy will do in the future is to look at the spread between the three-month Treasury Bill and the five-year Treasury Note. When the yield of the 5-yr dips below the yield of the 3-mo (like it is now) you can make a prediction that the economy will go into a recession in three to five quarters.